A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
